XGB All-Safe q30 Risk Gate (PR #16/#18) INTERNAL ONLY

← Secret Lab index · xgb_all_safe_q30_pr16

Definition

Family	ml
Evidence tier	T1_INTERNAL_MONITOR
Public status	HIDDEN_UNTIL_RECONFIRMED
Lab status	NEEDS_ARTIFACT_RECOVERY
Effective status (this eval)	NEEDS_ARTIFACT_RECOVERY
Lab inception (forward start, no backfill)	2026-07-09T03:55:54Z

Historical Evidence (separate from forward)

source_report	reports/research/ml_10k_feature_discovery/xgb_all_safe_q30_reconfirmation_candidate.md
source_pr	18
historical_net_pnl	—
historical_max_dd	-97.45
historical_sharpe	—
historical_trade_count	—
validation_pnl	+248.00
locked_test_pnl	+259.73
search_adjusted_p	+0.04
reality_check_status	RECONFIRMATION_REQUIRED

Forward Evidence (since lab inception only)

No forward evaluation: no reproducible scorer/frozen params: original_panel_snapshot_lost_deterministic_refit_does_not_reproduce_pinned_evidence

Risk Metrics

No risk overlay on this candidate.

Internal Ranking

Not ranked (no forward trades yet).

Why this tier

Reproducible leakage-safe definition at q10 canonical sizing, worth forward-monitoring; search-adjusted p=0.045 (reported, not required at this tier).

T2 Private-Watchlist Policy Status

Policy requirement	Status	Detail
valid scoring bundle / reproducible definition	NOT MET	no reproducible scorer/frozen params: original_panel_snapshot_lost_deterministic_refit_does_not_reproduce_pinned_evidence
no safety violation	PASS	paper_only, real_orders_enabled=false, no backfill (validator-enforced)

Not eligible for private-watchlist review yet — the unmet lines above are why.

Promotion Checklist (human only)

Human review requested and recorded (never automatic)
Forward sample meets the target tier's policy minimums
Historical vs forward evidence consistent (no backfill, no locked-test rows counted as forward)
Risk metrics sane (drawdown, worst day, concentration)
Search-adjusted evidence disclosed (required for public claims, not for monitoring)
No alpha/profitability language in any proposed public copy

SECRET LAB — INTERNAL ONLY. Paper simulation bookkeeping. No real orders, no live trading, no execution candidate, no promotion from this page. Forward evidence starts at lab inception and is never backfilled. Not on the public dashboard; do not link from public_site.