XGB all_safe q15 (PR #18 nominal passer) INTERNAL ONLY

← Secret Lab index · xgb_all_safe_q15_pr18

Definition

Family	ml
Evidence tier	T0_EXPLORATORY
Public status	NOT_PUBLIC
Lab status	HISTORICAL_ONLY
Effective status (this eval)	HISTORICAL_ONLY
Lab inception (forward start, no backfill)	2026-07-09T03:55:54Z

Historical Evidence (separate from forward)

source_report	reports/research/ml_10k_feature_discovery/reality_check_summary.json
source_pr	18
historical_net_pnl	—
historical_max_dd	—
historical_sharpe	—
historical_trade_count	—
validation_pnl	+21.11
locked_test_pnl	+289.40
search_adjusted_p	+0.04
reality_check_status	PASSED_BUT_VALIDATION_TEST_INCONSISTENT

Forward Evidence (since lab inception only)

No forward evaluation: no reproducible scorer/frozen params: nominal_passer_with_validation_test_inconsistency_no_scorer

Risk Metrics

No risk overlay on this candidate.

Internal Ranking

Not ranked (no forward trades yet).

Why this tier

Exploratory log entry: leakage-safe idea with weak/inconclusive evidence (search-adjusted p=0.035, reality check: PASSED_BUT_VALIDATION_TEST_INCONSISTENT). Monitoring is allowed; public claims are not.

T2 Private-Watchlist Policy Status

Policy requirement	Status	Detail
valid scoring bundle / reproducible definition	NOT MET	no reproducible scorer/frozen params: nominal_passer_with_validation_test_inconsistency_no_scorer
no safety violation	PASS	paper_only, real_orders_enabled=false, no backfill (validator-enforced)

Not eligible for private-watchlist review yet — the unmet lines above are why.

Promotion Checklist (human only)

Human review requested and recorded (never automatic)
Forward sample meets the target tier's policy minimums
Historical vs forward evidence consistent (no backfill, no locked-test rows counted as forward)
Risk metrics sane (drawdown, worst day, concentration)
Search-adjusted evidence disclosed (required for public claims, not for monitoring)
No alpha/profitability language in any proposed public copy

SECRET LAB — INTERNAL ONLY. Paper simulation bookkeeping. No real orders, no live trading, no execution candidate, no promotion from this page. Forward evidence starts at lab inception and is never backfilled. Not on the public dashboard; do not link from public_site.